Imagine you witnessed a lion attack from the distance a couple years ago. Fortunately, you and your family were a few meters away when the beast jumped from the bushes and the poor trio that were ambushed didn’t make it.
It is 56,000 A.D. and is that time of the year when the drought forces your tribe to move almost 300 kilometers to be able to survive.
You were 16 back then and the scene was forever carved in your psyche. Now you are walking again that same path to survive the droughts and suddenly you see a four legged silhouette on top of the rocks to the left. You are not sure if it is the same beast: it is not the same size, not the same posture, hell , it doesn’t even have the same way of walking, but nevertheless, you sound the alarm to the rest of the tribe so everyone is aware of the menace.
Analogy served us perfect a few million to thousand years: what was a threat would always have the same basic characteristics. So it made perfect sense to react to alike events in alike manners. Fight or flight.
However, today, is a completely different story. The complexity of the system we’re in has multiplied manifold. And almost not one of the decisions we encounter in our lives represents a matter of life and death.
So our brains have grown obsolete.
Or are least, the software of heuristics and quick conclusions based on previous experience and culture that we try to apply to, for example, our business, politics and economic decisions.
In those kind of cases, where no one has previous experience, like the covid19 crisis, or the private special tourism race, or the psychedelic industry, or just about anything we try to start up nowadays, for these situations or systems, analogy reasoning will equal disaster.
To minimize the risk and maximize the odds at success, let me introduce you: first principles thinking.